A Crude Shock Explaining the Impact of the 2014-16 Oil Price Decline Across Exporters |
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| Author:
| Grigoli, Francesco
Herman, Alexander
Swiston, Andrew J. |
| Series title: | IMF Working Papers |
| ISBN: | 978-1-4843-1162-2 |
| Publication Date: | Jul 2017 |
| Publisher: | International Monetary Fund
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| Book Format: | Ebook |
| List Price: | USD $9.00 |
Book Description:
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The decline in oil prices in 2014-16 was one of the sharpest in history, and put to test theresilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to which economic fundamentals enteringthe oil price decline explain the impact on economic growth across oil exporting economies,and derive policy implications as to what factors help to mitigate the negative effects. Wefind that pre-existing fundamentals account for about half of the cross-country variation inthe impact of the shock. Oil...
More DescriptionThe decline in oil prices in 2014-16 was one of the sharpest in history, and put to test theresilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to which economic fundamentals enteringthe oil price decline explain the impact on economic growth across oil exporting economies,and derive policy implications as to what factors help to mitigate the negative effects. Wefind that pre-existing fundamentals account for about half of the cross-country variation inthe impact of the shock. Oil exporters that weathered the shock better tended to have astronger fiscal position, higher foreign currency liquidity buffers, a more diversified exportbase, a history of price stability, and a more flexible exchange rate regime. Within this groupof countries, the impact of the shock is not found to be related to the size of oil exports, orthe share of oil in fiscal revenue or economic activity.