Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession |
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| Author:
| Yi, Kei-Mu
Bems, Rudolfs
Johnson, Robert C. |
| Series title: | IMF Working Papers |
| ISBN: | 978-1-4552-6770-5 |
| Publication Date: | Jun 2010 |
| Publisher: | International Monetary Fund
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| Book Format: | Ebook |
| List Price: | Contact Supplier contact
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Book Description:
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This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-2009. We find that 20-30 percent of the decline in the US and EU demand was borne by foreign countries, with NAFTA, Emerging Europe, and Asia hit hardest. Allowing demand to change in all countries simultaneously, our framework delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of nearly 3. Thus, demand alone can account for 70...
More DescriptionThis paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify US and EU demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-2009. We find that 20-30 percent of the decline in the US and EU demand was borne by foreign countries, with NAFTA, Emerging Europe, and Asia hit hardest. Allowing demand to change in all countries simultaneously, our framework delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of nearly 3. Thus, demand alone can account for 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results.