International Energy Outlook 2016

The outlook for energy use worldwide presented in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) continues to show rising levels ofdemand over the next three decades, led by strong increases in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment (OECD),3 particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia, including China and India, account for more than half of the world'stotal increase in energy consumption over the 2012 to 2040 projection period. By 2040, energy use in...
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The outlook for energy use worldwide presented in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) continues to show rising levels ofdemand over the next three decades, led by strong increases in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment (OECD),3 particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia, including China and India, account for more than half of the world'stotal increase in energy consumption over the 2012 to 2040 projection period. By 2040, energy use in non-OECD Asia exceeds thatof the entire OECD by 40 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in the IEO2016 Reference case (Figure ES-1).In the IEO2016 Reference case, total world energy consumption rises from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 815 quadrillion Btu in2040, an increase of 48%. Most of the world's energy growth will occur in the non-OECD nations, where relatively strong, longtermeconomic growth drives increasing demand for energy. Non-OECD energy consumption increases by 71% between 2012and 2040 compared with an increase of 18% in OECD nations. Energy use in the combined non-OECD region first exceeded thatof the OECD in 2007 and by 2012, non-OECD countries accounted for 57% of total world energy consumption. By 2040, almosttwo-thirds of the world's primary energy will be consumed in the non-OECD economies.Economic growth-as measured in gross domestic product (GDP)-is a key determinant in the growth of energy demand. The world'sGDP (expressed in purchasing power parity terms) rises by 3.3%/year from 2012 to 2040. The fastest rates of growth are projected forthe emerging, non-OECD countries, where combined GDP increases by 4.2%/year. In OECD countries, GDP grows at a much slower rateof 2.0%/year over the projection as a result of their more mature economies and slow or declining population growth trends. The strongprojected economic growth rates in the non-OECD drive the fast-paced growth in future energy consumption among those nations.