Libya's Nuclear Disarmament: Lessons and Implications for Nuclear Proliferation

Recent events in Libya have already had a significant effect on the region and beyond, and perhaps one of the most compelling results has been the potential impact on regional powers for the future course of nuclear proliferation. Libya's nuclear disarmament experience has provided lessons learned for other states, including for those states that have themselves acquired nuclear weapons recently, those that may be in the process of developing that capability or those that may be...
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Recent events in Libya have already had a significant effect on the region and beyond, and perhaps one of the most compelling results has been the potential impact on regional powers for the future course of nuclear proliferation. Libya's nuclear disarmament experience has provided lessons learned for other states, including for those states that have themselves acquired nuclear weapons recently, those that may be in the process of developing that capability or those that may be considering the possibility of doing so. What is important is not whether such states have understood the lessons correctly, but rather how they have studied and absorbed such lessons. A corollary is the importance of appreciating the impact that such lessons may have on their perspective of the role and relevance of nuclear weapons in relation to perceived threats and interests.The thesis of this monograph is that the lessons learned from the Libyan case of disarmament, especially in light of the events of 2011, will confirm the decision of those countries that have already acquired nuclear weapons and add momentum to the efforts of those countries on their way to developing or considering the acquisition of nuclear weapons as a means of enhancing national and regime security. This dynamic, not surprisingly, will thereby complicate future efforts at nonproliferation and denuclearization.