The Demand for Oil Products in Developing Countries

World Bank Discussion Paper No. 359. Oil and energy markets have experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades--steep price increases in the 1970s and 1980s followed by a decrease in 1986 and large declines in demand in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. But despite considerable uncertainty about future developments in the world oil market, this paper finds that demand is set to rise in all main regions, particularly in developing countries, led by increasing incomes,...
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World Bank Discussion Paper No. 359. Oil and energy markets have experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades--steep price increases in the 1970s and 1980s followed by a decrease in 1986 and large declines in demand in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. But despite considerable uncertainty about future developments in the world oil market, this paper finds that demand is set to rise in all main regions, particularly in developing countries, led by increasing incomes, population, industrialization, investment, and trade. This study examines the growth in demand for eight major oil products for 37 developing countries over the 1971-93 period, analyzing the relationships and changes over time for income, population, and demand for energy and oil products for each country. It also examines some of the important phenomena that affect oil demand and calculates income and price elasticities for each product in all countries.