Toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies |
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Author:
| Schaechter, Andrea Alper, C. Emre Arbatli, Elif Jonas, Jiri Caceres, Carlos Callegari, Giovanni Gerard, Marc Kinda, Tidiane Shabunina, Anna Weber, Anke |
Series title: | IMF Working Papers |
ISBN: | 978-1-4639-5935-7 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2012 |
Publisher: | International Monetary Fund
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Book Format: | Ebook |
List Price: | Contact Supplier contact
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Book Description:
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This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt...
More DescriptionThis paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.